Mind · Inference
EpistemicCalibrate
Structural confidence degradation
Definition
Mechanism
Enforces a Decay function on confidence as the prediction horizon increases. Unlike human intuition which maintains high confidence to signal status, this pattern forces the agent's reported certainty to degrade as the horizon (T) lengthens, down to a declared floor and absent a reset event.
Preconditions
- Base prediction available
Postconditions
- Confidence score adjusted downward
Invariants
- Confidence at T+1 is below confidence at T, absent a reset event.
- Confidence never falls below `floor`.
- Reserves `unmodeled_mass` of the probability for events the model does not represent.
Risks
Failure modes
Paralysis
confidence reaches `floor` so early that no horizon supports action.
Reset abuse
frequent reset events restore confidence faster than the horizon erodes it, which defeats the decay.
Relationships
Builds on
References
Physics
Automatic expiration of stale state
Used by
References
A conclusion inherits the verification assurance of its weakest load-bearing premise.
Society
Defensible over ambitious
Reference
Parameters
floorProbability, (0.0, 0.5)- Confidence level decay may approach but not cross.
unmodeled_massProbability, (0.0, 0.5)- Probability held back for unmodelled events, never assigned to a named outcome.