---
slug: "VectorOptionTimeline"
name: "VectorOptionTimeline"
type: "Coordination"
layer: "Society"
ref: "VectorOptionTimeline#96ae"
sema_id: "sema:VectorOptionTimeline#mh:SHA-256:96ae792943d38f0ea59da99e62cd63e103841a75c3a2e6a056a6040646fe17a3"
tags: ["Society","Coordination"]
updated: 2026-11-11
mindscape: "origin-of-risk"
index_url: https://mindscape.world/scapes/origin-of-risk.json
url: https://mindscape.world/origin-of-risk/VectorOptionTimeline/
related: ["ResourceShapeSeparation","WeatherAgent","CounterfactualCurve"]
---

# VectorOptionTimeline

A project plan that records live options, their decision points and activation costs, and updates their value as the project proceeds, instead of a fixed sequence of tasks

Layer: Society · Category: Coordination

## Mechanism

Alongside the preferred path, draw the options that leave it: each with a decision point (a diamond), the alternative path it opens, its expected timeline under uncertainty and its activation cost. Decision points represent the project's intrinsic complexity; uncertainty in timelines represents extrinsic complexity such as other teams' availability. As the project nears a decision point, short-range information about the option's real value and cost becomes reliable, and the manager explicitly decides whether to activate it, in which case it becomes part of the preferred path, as a [WeatherAgent](https://mindscape.world/scapes/origin-of-risk/WeatherAgent.md) decides whether to move. This keeps the [ResourceShapeSeparation](https://mindscape.world/scapes/origin-of-risk/ResourceShapeSeparation.md): resource forecasts stay long-range while the path within them can change. Zooming out never removes options: what one level treats as a non-negotiable milestone is, one level of authority up, a preferred option among others.

## Invariants

- Every option records its decision point, alternative path and activation cost
- Option values are updated as the project nears each decision point
- There are options at every level of the plan, including the top

## Failure modes

- Treating the top-level plan as fixed when it is a preferred option to higher authority
- Recording options once and never updating their value
- Letting activation costs of unused options rise until they are no longer real options

## Builds on

- [ResourceShapeSeparation](https://mindscape.world/scapes/origin-of-risk/ResourceShapeSeparation.md) (Society; References)
- [WeatherAgent](https://mindscape.world/scapes/origin-of-risk/WeatherAgent.md) (Mind; References)

## Used by

- [CounterfactualCurve](https://mindscape.world/scapes/origin-of-risk/CounterfactualCurve.md) (Society; References)

## Identity

- Sema ID: `sema:VectorOptionTimeline#mh:SHA-256:96ae792943d38f0ea59da99e62cd63e103841a75c3a2e6a056a6040646fe17a3`
- Ref: `VectorOptionTimeline#96ae`

## Links

- [Pattern page](https://mindscape.world/origin-of-risk/VectorOptionTimeline/)
- [View in the interactive graph](https://mindscape.world/origin-of-risk/#VectorOptionTimeline)
- [JSON](https://mindscape.world/scapes/origin-of-risk/VectorOptionTimeline.json)
- [Index of all patterns](https://mindscape.world/scapes/origin-of-risk.json)