{
  "handle": "QuasiCryptographicChange",
  "gloss": "Hand back the room a prediction frees up as visible efficiency savings: same function, measurably cheaper, nothing hidden",
  "mechanism": "The simplest form of {{cryptographic_change}}. A {{productive_prediction_machine}} removes states or skips inputs that a prediction makes unnecessary, and the saving is passed on to whoever budgets the process. Function is unchanged, cost goes down, and the change is detectable as greater efficiency, so the processing remains transparent: there is no room in the budget for anything but the original function. This is ordinary streamlining of an organisational process. Because predictions can fail, the risk is managed by occasionally attending to the inputs predicted to be skippable, at a frequency between full and partial exploitation of the prediction.",
  "invariants": [
    "Function is unchanged while the prediction holds",
    "The saving is visible to the budget holder",
    "No additional process occupies the freed room"
  ],
  "failure_modes": [
    "Streamlining so completely that a failed prediction goes unnoticed",
    "Assuming the skipped waypoints have no positive value",
    "Over-specialising tasks so that the variety needed for later additional functions is gone"
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "path": [
      "Infrastructure",
      "Primitives"
    ],
    "ring": 2,
    "tier": 2,
    "source": "Adam Timlett, On the Origin of Risk (2025), Technical Appendix III p.163-165"
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:QuasiCryptographicChange#mh:SHA-256:172cd88468f3028aa80942220b9084e3cc23cc9a28f41f223fc030c2b26ed61b",
  "sema_ref": "QuasiCryptographicChange#172c",
  "sema_stub": "172c",
  "dependencies": {
    "references": {
      "cryptographic_change": "sema:CryptographicChange#mh:SHA-256:b5bca2d05d1d78791bc7caa60a3653f88e54d8cf94dae9e809a33345be9d28ea",
      "productive_prediction_machine": "sema:ProductivePredictionMachine#mh:SHA-256:245b2fe0b8429deec4d9e5f9358e38e0550f97e679eaf5948b2c84300df38811"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Infrastructure",
  "sema_category": "Primitives",
  "used_by": {}
}