---
slug: "RegimeSense"
name: "RegimeSense"
type: "Inference"
layer: "Mind"
ref: "RegimeSense#5039"
sema_id: "sema:RegimeSense#mh:SHA-256:50396d316674bf65b204938ee8cecc48cf294223cdb90c9789d6a72bb542cb07"
tags: ["Mind","Inference"]
updated: 2026-11-11
mindscape: "bootstrap"
index_url: https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap.json
url: https://mindscape.world/bootstrap/RegimeSense/
related: ["Agent","Break","DriftWatch","Noise","OntologyAdapt","Quorum","Edgehold","SurprisalUpdate","Edgehold#4035"]
---

# RegimeSense

Detecting structural breaks in reality

Layer: Mind · Category: Inference

## Mechanism

An anomaly detector that continuously tracks divergence between the agent's internal model predictions and observed reality. It calculates a Regime Stability Score (RSS) as the rolling average of prediction accuracy over a window. High surprisal (low accuracy) indicates regime instability. When RSS drops below threshold, it signals that the underlying generative process has changed. It continuously monitors prediction error via [DriftWatch](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/DriftWatch.md), triggering [OntologyAdapt](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/OntologyAdapt.md) or [Quorum](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Quorum.md) if the error signal crosses the regime-change threshold.

## Invariants

- Stability [Break](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Break.md): RSS below `stability_threshold` across the window signals a regime break.
- The RSS window is `window_size` observations, fixed in advance rather than chosen per evaluation.

## Preconditions

- [Agent](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Agent.md) has a predictive model generating expectations
- Observations are timestamped and comparable to predictions

## Postconditions

- Alert raised if regime break detected
- RSS score computed for current window

## Failure modes

- False Positives: [Noise](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Noise.md) spikes triggering unnecessary accommodations.
- Lag: RSS is a trailing indicator, so regime shifts are detected after-the-fact.
- Threshold Gaming: Setting threshold too high causes missed shifts; too low causes constant alerts.

## Parameters

- `stability_threshold` (Float, [0.0, 1.0]): RSS threshold below which regime break is detected
- `window_size` (Integer, [10, 1000]): Number of observations in the rolling average window

## Builds on

- [Agent](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Agent.md) (Mind; References)
- [Break](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Break.md) (Infrastructure; References)
- [DriftWatch](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/DriftWatch.md) (Society; References)
- [Noise](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Noise.md) (Physics; References)
- [OntologyAdapt](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/OntologyAdapt.md) (Mind; References)
- [Quorum](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Quorum.md) (Infrastructure; References)

## Used by

- [Edgehold](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Edgehold.md) (Mind; References)
- [SurprisalUpdate](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/SurprisalUpdate.md) (Mind; References)

## Identity

- Sema ID: `sema:RegimeSense#mh:SHA-256:50396d316674bf65b204938ee8cecc48cf294223cdb90c9789d6a72bb542cb07`
- Ref: `RegimeSense#5039`
- Supersedes:
  - `sema:RegimeSense#mh:SHA-256:3e24672befbaea7607da15aa4b7c75517cb16f68a055fda352841e76469e4ead`
  - `sema:RegimeSense#mh:SHA-256:430bf5a5fcfe1796a400eda12608fed3600ecb00ec50ef3f4c8934db5065a2a0`
  - `sema:RegimeSense#mh:SHA-256:56eccdcf5c9e28545cb3ad569f86ec1bf3dec5e2eb4f9620f980da72b11937cf`
  - `sema:RegimeSense#mh:SHA-256:78eb98733d417ff23bf44f527a4bc2ed225100b4d4b182f0cbed36df7b36c687`

## Links

- [Pattern page](https://mindscape.world/bootstrap/RegimeSense/)
- [View in the interactive graph](https://mindscape.world/bootstrap/#RegimeSense)
- [JSON](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/RegimeSense.json)
- [Index of all patterns](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap.json)