{
  "handle": "RegimeSense",
  "mechanism": "An anomaly detector that continuously tracks divergence between the agent's internal model predictions and observed reality. It calculates a Regime Stability Score (RSS) as the rolling average of prediction accuracy over a window. High surprisal (low accuracy) indicates regime instability. When RSS drops below threshold, it signals that the underlying generative process has changed. It continuously monitors prediction error via {{drift_watch}}, triggering {{ontology_adapt}} or {{quorum}} if the error signal crosses the regime-change threshold.",
  "gloss": "Detecting structural breaks in reality",
  "failure_modes": [
    "False Positives: {{noise}} spikes triggering unnecessary accommodations.",
    "Lag: RSS is a trailing indicator, so regime shifts are detected after-the-fact.",
    "Threshold Gaming: Setting threshold too high causes missed shifts; too low causes constant alerts."
  ],
  "invariants": [
    "Stability {{break}}: RSS below `stability_threshold` across the window signals a regime break.",
    "The RSS window is `window_size` observations, fixed in advance rather than chosen per evaluation."
  ],
  "preconditions": [
    "{{agent}} has a predictive model generating expectations",
    "Observations are timestamped and comparable to predictions"
  ],
  "postconditions": [
    "Alert raised if regime break detected",
    "RSS score computed for current window"
  ],
  "parameters": [
    {
      "name": "stability_threshold",
      "type": "Float",
      "range": "[0.0, 1.0]",
      "description": "RSS threshold below which regime break is detected"
    },
    {
      "name": "window_size",
      "type": "Integer",
      "range": "[10, 1000]",
      "description": "Number of observations in the rolling average window"
    }
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "tier": 1,
    "ring": 2,
    "supersedes": [
      "sema:RegimeSense#mh:SHA-256:3e24672befbaea7607da15aa4b7c75517cb16f68a055fda352841e76469e4ead",
      "sema:RegimeSense#mh:SHA-256:430bf5a5fcfe1796a400eda12608fed3600ecb00ec50ef3f4c8934db5065a2a0",
      "sema:RegimeSense#mh:SHA-256:56eccdcf5c9e28545cb3ad569f86ec1bf3dec5e2eb4f9620f980da72b11937cf",
      "sema:RegimeSense#mh:SHA-256:78eb98733d417ff23bf44f527a4bc2ed225100b4d4b182f0cbed36df7b36c687"
    ],
    "path": [
      "Mind",
      "Inference"
    ],
    "related": [
      "Edgehold#4035"
    ]
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:RegimeSense#mh:SHA-256:50396d316674bf65b204938ee8cecc48cf294223cdb90c9789d6a72bb542cb07",
  "sema_ref": "RegimeSense#5039",
  "sema_stub": "5039",
  "dependencies": {
    "references": {
      "agent": "sema:Agent#mh:SHA-256:e127459069739fffc96a71d54ef6e8c97ca53471d5349c16aa72a092a33756cd",
      "break": "sema:Break#mh:SHA-256:5003e128ac02e7835d2094d72dc929ce4c96819b56ef167c2ca8da9f16aa402a",
      "drift_watch": "sema:DriftWatch#mh:SHA-256:b696959258eb3c48ce11055634b107451d5a500bc8ba19693db4c30b5f5033bf",
      "noise": "sema:Noise#mh:SHA-256:fd120b472352611acc251c4c87b08d06ae1187f9f4775d8a69b4ff9b326d2569",
      "ontology_adapt": "sema:OntologyAdapt#mh:SHA-256:a541f46f3c1ffe236a27dfaafaffd0d3dc76bf7c3fa086b5e9bcf1a945c85e63",
      "quorum": "sema:Quorum#mh:SHA-256:2a33f05d34bfb2667645680393ca37865d4a7d05d2056eddf4c9df0c13b21744"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Mind",
  "sema_category": "Inference",
  "used_by": {
    "references": {
      "Edgehold": "sema:Edgehold#mh:SHA-256:4035875c98ea481ce52f08cb3fab5d5960d2a815a608d045d5c57b05cd350e6d",
      "SurprisalUpdate": "sema:SurprisalUpdate#mh:SHA-256:26e53ade88809ac3ba9293b45db768fdbdb384a53cda1217c3a0dfc61d5f8408"
    }
  }
}