{
  "handle": "PropheticQuorum",
  "mechanism": "A two-stage consensus protocol. Phase 1 (reality {{check}}): Agents receive a proposed action. Each runs a local {{simulation_trace}} to predict the outcome {{state}}. They vote to confirm they share the SAME prediction. If predictions diverge, the protocol halts for model alignment. Phase 2 ({{value}} judgment): Only after predictions match do agents vote on whether the predicted {{state}} is desirable. This ensures consensus is based on shared reality, not just shared language. It splits consensus into two phases: reality {{check}} (via regime sensing) and {{value}} judgment (via {{normative_judge}}).",
  "gloss": "Aligning predictions before aligning votes",
  "failure_modes": [
    "Model divergence (agents cannot agree on what will happen, so they never get to vote on the plan).",
    "High compute cost (N agents running N simulations)."
  ],
  "invariants": [
    "Prediction Precedence: {{vote}} (reality) must pass before {{vote}} (desirability)",
    "Shared Vision: Action cannot proceed if >X% of agents predict different outcomes"
  ],
  "preconditions": [
    "Determinism level of {{simulation}} engine is high"
  ],
  "parameters": [
    {
      "name": "confidence_weighting",
      "type": "Boolean",
      "range": "{true, false}",
      "description": "Weight votes by stated confidence"
    },
    {
      "name": "prediction_threshold",
      "type": "Probability",
      "range": "[0.6, 0.95]",
      "description": "Agreement level for valid prediction"
    }
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "tier": 1,
    "related": [
      "Quorum",
      "sema:SimulationTrace#mh:SHA-256:e778ab4f3e22ce60d3f822aeb249ae83007ad8cc505e476b01b4356f984aebd3",
      "RegimeSense"
    ],
    "ring": 1,
    "supersedes": [
      "sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:192eabb9f8aa32fddb88760964cb4266afa565c1ab94e1091395712764293741",
      "sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:c5d889696c7dab154033eb64aa8858bdd88171cfb5d45a85dbbe806b7f1d8641",
      "sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:1091d4dbc1638dc67cda263e645f50bda77352363ce4ea5dbf24c281781401ba",
      "sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:83cc35fdf3dbd331b9c44c9c7d34a0db335d339ecd75d62ad5923fb83e9b7503",
      "sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:fb6b841338e2ec6f9e0ad6afab1eb7b37128a778ce618fb95aebdbefdb791b57"
    ],
    "path": [
      "Society",
      "Protocols"
    ]
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:f7fff3a87881c7f923e067c30eee122443ae6ab47c2831edac0eccc1f1e01230",
  "sema_ref": "PropheticQuorum#f7ff",
  "sema_stub": "f7ff",
  "dependencies": {
    "references": {
      "check": "sema:Check#mh:SHA-256:6890b221c38531710528cd84bbf3a957e29d9836dfc9c02669fc0a86709bcb00",
      "normative_judge": "sema:NormativeJudge#mh:SHA-256:684f219181e9180ffea6b4ff2947dbdb9d37a12ae690c02c088f58881f9e0726",
      "simulation": "sema:Simulation#mh:SHA-256:1058e7090079e846251ed480d7afec0328809d22bebb6b205425b2de614787c3",
      "simulation_trace": "sema:SimulationTrace#mh:SHA-256:e18789d2ae0413d7f4a4429598f9a12c6f2b9fe4b515eef176d855dcadc0d987",
      "state": "sema:State#mh:SHA-256:4f25e6a16ccd37dc0bc154cccc7055cb504d49daa8b712f372a425eb6c7b8cb2",
      "value": "sema:Value#mh:SHA-256:37fd75758d04cdd7f57a636ccb5394d463713d60c33b694e37ab71f4a5a896f8",
      "vote": "sema:Vote#mh:SHA-256:84935dbc846bcd8fe2da01e9e04401f190769e87d0354e00c0986e43e414f300"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Society",
  "sema_category": "Protocols",
  "used_by": {}
}