---
slug: "Estimate"
name: "Estimate"
type: "Reasoning"
layer: "Mind"
ref: "Estimate#3bac"
sema_id: "sema:Estimate#mh:SHA-256:3bacc0606623a0603b271a835b54157c2e86389c4282af86d88cd1ddd9ecf917"
tags: ["Mind","Reasoning"]
updated: 2026-11-11
mindscape: "bootstrap"
index_url: https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap.json
url: https://mindscape.world/bootstrap/Estimate/
related: ["Task","Think","Budget","HeuristicSnap","Simulation","Value","Bid","Fermi","MarginalValueRule"]
---

# Estimate

Predictive resource costing

Layer: Mind · Category: Reasoning

## Mechanism

The predictive [Think](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Think.md) process of calculating the probable [Value](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Value.md) cost of a [Task](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Task.md) before execution. Two modes: [HeuristicSnap](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/HeuristicSnap.md) for fast rough estimates, [Simulation](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Simulation.md) for accurate expensive ones. Outputs a [Bid](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Bid.md) carrying an interval, its coverage, and the reference class it was drawn from. Consumes [Budget](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Budget.md).

## Invariants

- The interval states the coverage it claims.
- The estimate names its reference class, or records that it had none.
- The estimator is given its allowance from [Budget](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Budget.md) before starting, and returns on reaching it.

## Failure modes

- Overconfidence: intervals narrower than the evidence supports.
- Anchoring: estimates biased by irrelevant prior information.
- Planning Fallacy: systematic underestimation of time and cost.
- Allowance exhausted: returns a wide interval a caller may read as a point estimate.

## Parameters

- `estimation_allowance` (Ratio, (0.0, 1.0]): Share of the task's budget the estimator may spend.
- `target_coverage` (Ratio, (0.0, 1.0)): Coverage the published interval claims, e.g. 0.8 or 0.95.

## Signature

- `Think(Value)`

## Builds on

- [Task](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Task.md) (Infrastructure; Accepts)
- [Think](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Think.md) (Mind; Composes with)
- [Budget](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Budget.md) (Infrastructure; References)
- [HeuristicSnap](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/HeuristicSnap.md) (Mind; References)
- [Simulation](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Simulation.md) (Mind; References)
- [Value](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Value.md) (Infrastructure; References)
- [Bid](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Bid.md) (Society; Yields)

## Used by

- [Fermi](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Fermi.md) (Mind; Composes with)
- [MarginalValueRule](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/MarginalValueRule.md) (Mind; References)

## Identity

- Sema ID: `sema:Estimate#mh:SHA-256:3bacc0606623a0603b271a835b54157c2e86389c4282af86d88cd1ddd9ecf917`
- Ref: `Estimate#3bac`
- Supersedes:
  - `sema:Estimate#mh:SHA-256:bb3078fc4f974c17821e162f0034230b653c9ebd70c4655e86924d1292b1d449`
  - `sema:Estimate#mh:SHA-256:28d2e9662fc904a5d5662b8b532a2c14a7ed47f8cda950a58875e07f249207df`
  - `sema:Estimate#mh:SHA-256:ae720093041b7c69a7131328b912157311dc43e4491a2125c5da449482c77b94`
  - `sema:Estimate#mh:SHA-256:0f4428479417ff278eec7ffe9149e65049956fe2f4bfd5d3f8ebdd0b708428fd`

## Links

- [Pattern page](https://mindscape.world/bootstrap/Estimate/)
- [View in the interactive graph](https://mindscape.world/bootstrap/#Estimate)
- [JSON](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap/Estimate.json)
- [Index of all patterns](https://mindscape.world/scapes/bootstrap.json)