{
  "handle": "CounterfactualAnchor",
  "mechanism": "Freezes a prediction BEFORE observation. 1. Instantiate immutable Anchor (Expectation). 2. {{observe}} Reality. 3. Learning {{signal}} = Delta(Anchor, Reality). Prevents Hindsight {{cognitive_bias}} by forcing updates based on genuine surprise. It creates the static reference point against which {{surprisal_update}} measures the magnitude of the learning delta.",
  "gloss": "Freezing expectation to measure true surprise",
  "failure_modes": [
    "Hindsight Leakage: {{agent}} unconsciously adjusts the Anchor as data comes in.",
    "Vague Anchor: Prediction is too broad to be falsified (e.g., 'Something will happen').",
    "Anchor Abandonment: {{agent}} ignores the Anchor when the delta is too large (denial)."
  ],
  "invariants": [
    "Anchor Immutability: The Anchor cannot be modified once the Observation phase begins",
    "Delta Causality: Learning {{signal}} L = f(Anchor, Observation). No other inputs permitted during update",
    "Temporal Ordering: Creation(Anchor) < Time(Observation)"
  ],
  "preconditions": [
    "{{agent}} has a predictive model capable of generating specific expectations",
    "Incoming observable event stream"
  ],
  "postconditions": [
    "A quantified 'Surprisal' delta is recorded",
    "Internal model weights/beliefs updated based on delta"
  ],
  "parameters": [
    {
      "name": "granularity",
      "type": "Duration",
      "range": "unspecified",
      "description": "Temporal resolution for counterfactual comparison (e.g., hour, day, week)"
    },
    {
      "name": "retention_policy",
      "type": "Enum",
      "range": "{Snapshot, Rolling, Permanent}",
      "description": "How long to keep counterfactual baselines before expiry"
    }
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "tier": 2,
    "ring": 1,
    "supersedes": [
      "sema:CounterfactualAnchor#mh:SHA-256:f5845fee4dbe585ede4203b84b7eb46ae4e6ceb7a2a0edaae53471fad17d0ae5",
      "sema:CounterfactualAnchor#mh:SHA-256:4d4acdb9ee21f5c41d45e40496a2879c5c8c79efcab7f389fb6f6f36588ac23c",
      "sema:CounterfactualAnchor#mh:SHA-256:0d2b80d411934b06aeaca853ac89163d71f795c26aeff8e88766f18a829766b2",
      "sema:CounterfactualAnchor#mh:SHA-256:e7accd6c44e6cfb43cb51af464c4b2edaef05e7405ec8dd5d417fe62a00ef28d",
      "sema:CounterfactualAnchor#mh:SHA-256:47beed0df44f67298c1280151c25ed6f396e18dea5665ad650c5493501d8f548"
    ],
    "path": [
      "Society",
      "Protocols"
    ],
    "related": [
      "Belongbend#31f2",
      "Wonderdwell#d966"
    ]
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:CounterfactualAnchor#mh:SHA-256:b8c3c5aca4a8adba07c19d0f6103387c6f7cf9b67ade40b412fa39e41fdb3adf",
  "sema_ref": "CounterfactualAnchor#b8c3",
  "sema_stub": "b8c3",
  "dependencies": {
    "references": {
      "agent": "sema:Agent#mh:SHA-256:e127459069739fffc96a71d54ef6e8c97ca53471d5349c16aa72a092a33756cd",
      "cognitive_bias": "sema:CognitiveBias#mh:SHA-256:c8a4abe2e0ce048be16d25f890a50f8c7095e099b5ab2de23aa059942328f387",
      "observe": "sema:Observe#mh:SHA-256:4a04c0e91f072dc02a4be52bca921c38c1be46e88b1f2bcb375076fdb5103e96",
      "signal": "sema:Signal#mh:SHA-256:6eaff8a06e08e75279670bc09d88175d130815240fdfb3a21252c0364769c1fc",
      "surprisal_update": "sema:SurprisalUpdate#mh:SHA-256:26e53ade88809ac3ba9293b45db768fdbdb384a53cda1217c3a0dfc61d5f8408"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Society",
  "sema_category": "Protocols",
  "used_by": {
    "references": {
      "Belongbend": "sema:Belongbend#mh:SHA-256:31f206755fd53787a1669629c924af28e7f46353b02225f624e3580d33ff1047",
      "Wonderdwell": "sema:Wonderdwell#mh:SHA-256:d9668fa81d43925aeffcb6c08da4fe42c0c0b9548a94466deb4c003dca026aa4"
    }
  }
}