Mind · Strategy
EpistemicROI
Calculating the economic value of reducing uncertainty
Definition
Mechanism
Value of Information (VOI) analysis. Before executing an information-gathering Task (Experiment, Probe, Research), calculate: (1) The range of possible Outcomes, (2) The Decision you would make for each Outcome. (3) If the Decision is the same regardless of Outcome, VOI = 0. (4) If different, VOI = Value(Better Decision) - Cost(Experiment). Only proceed if VOI > 0. It evaluates whether to Act on expensive patterns by checking if the information gain justifies the ComputeBudget.
Preconditions
- Cost of experiment is estimable
- Decision context is defined
Postconditions
- Go/No-Go decision based on ROI
Invariants
- The Experiment has at least two Outcomes leading to different actions.
- Expected value of the information exceeds the cost of acquiring it.
Risks
Failure modes
Overestimation of Pivot
Assuming you will change your mind when you actually won't (Confirmation CognitiveBias).
Underestimation of Cost
Ignoring the time/compute cost of the experiment itself.
Relationships
Builds on
References
Infrastructure
Root primitive for state modification
Infrastructure
Structural processing error definition
Economic governor for cognitive spend
Infrastructure
Irrevocable selection from a set of options
Structured causal discovery via variable isolation
Infrastructure
Realized state after an action, captured for Plan-vs-reality comparison
Infrastructure
The atomic unit of intent
Infrastructure
A measure of utility
Used by
References
Postponing decisions until more information available
Learning weighted by prediction failure magnitude
Reference